On July 8, 2016, fierce fighting erupted at State House, also known as J-1. This deadly incident was caused by a commotion between the guards of the First Vice-President Dr. Riek Machar’s and President Salva Kiir’s.
The clashes were inevitable because of the mounting antagonism, attack, and harassment of senior officials and security personnel affiliated to the opposition party. Before the J-1 dogfight, the friendship between the joint protection forces had been replaced with fear and suspicion.
The South Sudanese troops, especially the presidential guards, are untrained soldiers, who know little about what they are supposed to do when and where. Many of them are clueless about their constitutional roles, beyond protecting the individual leaders. At times, these presidential guards are deployed based on their ethnic identities and their relationships with the leaders in power. More often than not, they misbehave and act with no accountability.
Luckily, the need to train or retrain the law enforcement agencies has been identified and agreed upon in the peace accord signed in 2018. Chapter Two of the accord requires that all solders and security elements on both sides of the political divide be retrained and reoriented before they are integrated to form one modern national army.
Page 238 of the Book; Operation Linda Nchi: Kenya’s military experience in Somalia, states:‘‘It is clear that discipline can only be achieved through proper training. Poor training of troops is reflected in their behavior.’’
The J-1 incident showed that President Kiir and Dr Machar were not responsible, unless someone provides evidence to the contrary. Some commentators attributed the J-1 shooting to the social media comment made by one of the first Vice President’s spokespersons, who alleged that he had been arrested during a meeting in State House.
In the early afternoon of July 8, 2016, the shooting began in J-1’s compound where the top government officials and political bigwigs were in a meeting with President Kiir, Dr. Machar and Gen James Wani-Igga. The fighting went on for several hours with bullets and bombs hitting the wall of the presidential building and compound where the leaders and journalists were taking cover.
The meeting was reportedly convened by the President to address the mounting insecurity ahead of the Independence Day on July 9. Surprisingly, the leaders’ coming together ended up in the escalation of violence, indicating that the President and Dr Machar’s political marriage maybe irretrievably broken.
The memories of this regrettable incident are still fresh. The dogfight plunged the country and its impoverished population into unprecedented fear and death of several young soldiers. Unlike the December 15, 2013 conflict, the casualties were mostly soldiers. The Sudan Tribune online news titled; Heavy casualties on J1 clashes in Juba, put the casualties at over 150 dead on the same day.
The leaders came out alive and well. However, they were seen physically weak and terrified. Luckily, they gathered some courage to address a joint press conference.
The following morning, the day of the independence, intense fighting resumed and continued like never. I was following the events from Nairobi, and as a patriotic and responsible citizen who believes in peace, justice and human rights, I decide to act. Together with nine members of the Senior Youth of South Sudan, we organized a peaceful demonstration at the embassy of South Sudan to call for the cessation of hostilities in and around Juba.
Kenya’s NTV television covered our demonstration live. They called it ‘‘10 men for 10 million South Sudan’’. On the night of the demonstration, two fellow protestors and I were called for live interviews to shed light on the J-1 fighting.
Ultimately, Dr Machar and his forces under the command of his chief of General Staff Gen Simon Gatwech Dual, were dislodged and forced out of the Juba. They were pushed to the forest where they continued fighting while trekking toward the Congo borders. The military action against Dr Machar was followed by a presidential revocation and appointment that did not come as a surprise.
On July 25, 2016, President Kiir appointed Dr Machar’s erstwhile comrade Gen Taban Deng Gai as a replacement. Months before the fight, the latter differed with Dr Machar over the appointment of national ministers.
In 40 days of fighting and walking to the Congo border, a UN chartered plane evacuated Dr Machar on humanitarian grounds, to the Sudanese capital Khartoum for treatment, before he traveled to South Africa. While Dr Machar was still in Khartoum, two things happened:
One, he was reportedly visited by his former fighter Gen Peter Gatdet, who reminded Dr Machar in his hospital bed: ‘‘I told you not to go to Juba.’’ In Nuer language, they say; ‘‘Lueke raan ke luonyde jok,‘which means a man should be advise when he comes back.
On September 23, 2016, Machar chaired the SPLM-IO political Bureau Meeting, which came up with five-page resolutions. One was the declaration of an armed struggle. Thereafter, Dr Machar flew to South Africa. Fortunately, or unfortunately, he ended up being detained for two years.
His detention sparked protests by the South Sudanese in opposition. The detention in South Africa was reportedly linked to the SPLM-IO’s declaration of armed struggle. According to the SPLM-IO insiders, it was agreed that the resolution to wage war should not be shared with the media. However, Dr Machar released documents to the press. This reactivated an existing political sanction of SPLM-IO by the Barack Obama administration. The consequences of this autocratic decision attracted sharp criticism against the SPLM-IO Leader.
In the book; South Sudan: Elites, Ethnicity, Endless Wars and the Stunted State, Dr. Peter Adwok Nyaba opined:‘‘The incarceration of Machar in South Africa not only placed the SPLM/AIO in a very awkward situation, it also removed the veneer of democratic pretence in its political operations. Dr. Nyaba went on to say: ‘‘The movement now had no one to make a decision, or guide it in the face of growing uncertainties. Machar had survived his escape through the bush in South Sudan, with Kiir in hot pursuit, deploying Erik Prince’s Blackwater drones, SPLA helicopter gunships and battalions of infantry to track and kill him. Exploiting Machar’s incarceration, the movement’s lack of logistics, general demoralization and apathy in the ranks, the government managed to recapture most of the SPLM/A-IO territories, including its general headquarters at Pagak’’
On December 26, 2017, I led the 10-men press conference in support of President Festus Mogae’s peace initiative dubbed revitalization forum. We stated in our document that ‘‘Dr Machar was a key stakeholder of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan. He must be set free and allowed to participate directly in the revitalization in February 2018 when peace talks resume. Machar must be present in person at the negotiation table. Unless or until this revitalization forum is inclusive of all stakeholders, it is dead on arrival.’’
Dr Abiy Ahmed’s ascension as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister and Chairperson of the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) gave a fresh impetus. He made a successful effort to have Dr Machar released to join the peace forum in both Addis Ababa and Khartoum. Indeed, the release of Dr Machar from South Africa excited the peace loving South Sudanese people and expedited the peace negotiations.
On September 12, 2018, the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was signed and witnessed by the ousted Sudanese President Omar el Bashir and other African heads of states.
In October 2018, Dr Machar honored an invitation to attend a peace celebration at the Dr John Garang Mausoleum in Juba. President Kiir, in his speech published by Voice of America (VoA), stated: ‘‘As your president, I want to apologize on behalf of all parties to the conflict as leadership requires acceptance of responsibility.’’
In February 2020, Dr Machar returned to Juba. However, he was never allowed to move freely both in and outside South Sudan. For about five years, he never moved outside the capital. This was the beginning of his detention, which later became public on March 27 2025. I think if Dr Machar was a political student of the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga of Kenya, he could not tolerate five years of detention while at the same time receiving salaries for the work he was not allowed to do.
In August 2025, Kenyan lawyer, Ouma Kizito Ajuong in his article entitled Ethics in resignation from Public Office: Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s letter in perspective stated that ‘‘Resignation from public or state office is not a sign of political weakness. It is not giving up as a lot of those in the political space may always assert.
Dr Machar’s 2020 return to Juba was followed by slow peace implementation of R-ARCSS, which first started with the formation of the cabinet. The implementation of the agreement was marred by numerous postponements, some of which were done with the blessings of the late Pope Francis. In December 2023, the Kiir-Machar led government requested Kenya’s President William Ruto to mediate peace between them and the holdout opposition parties that abstained from signing the 2018 peace accord. Ruto accepted the task by appointing veteran peace mediator Gen Lazarus Sumbeiywo. On May 9, 2024, the peace initiative dubbed Tumaini Initiative, was launched. Similarly, the negotiation was characterized by parties’ withdrawals and frequent changing of goalposts.
On July 31, 2025, the head of government delegation, Gen Kuol Manyang Juuk, declared in his interview with Eye Radio that the Tumaini Initiative was dead, allegedly, because the opposition was not having a case. As a former delegate, I can tell that the opposition bloc called the United People’s Alliance (UPA), presented a strong a case.
The biggest challenge at the Tumaini Initiative was that the proposers wanted to be the opposers at the same time. In other words, the government wanted to choose for the opposition when it comes to the power sharing arrangement. Their pulling-out from the negotiations resulted in the incarceration of Dr Machar and others, including the deputy chairperson of the governmental delegation to the Tumaini Peace Initiative.
Their incarceration was triggered by the controversial disarmament in the Opposition strongholds such as Nasir and Ulang in Upper Nile State. The disarmament brought armed confrontation, which led to the death of Gen David Majur Dak and the White Army leader Tor Gile Thoan.
During his funeral service of Gen Dak in Juba, top government officials vowed to revenge, not just against the White Army, but also against the SPLM-IO leadership.
On February 2025, Dr Machar’s compound was surrounded by SSPDF soldiers loyal to President Kiir. On March 27, 2025, a military convoy of 40 vehicles carrying Defense Minister Chol Thon Balok and Chief of General staff Dr Paul Nang entered Machar’s residence at night with a letter informing him of his arrest. Prior to him being given the letter, Dr Machar was allegedly told to resign but he refused.
In fact, Dr Machar told them to ask President Kiir to sack him. It is now six months since Dr Machar was put behind bars at his residence in the capital. Since his arrest, some people have been arguing that he should be taken to court to face justice.
I do not support the call for the first vice president and company to be taken to court because there is no court except the hybrid one, which is provided in Chapter Five of the R-ARCSS. Unlike in July 2016, Dr Machar although excluded by arrest, is still a bona fide First Vice-President of the Republic of South Sudan.
The reasons why President Kiir cannot give the greenlight for Dr Machar’s prosecution are not obvious to ordinary citizenry. However, as a student of African political history, it appears to me that President Kiir and his surrogates have borrowed a leaf from President Jomo Kenyatta, who had a similar power struggle against his first Vice President Jaramogi Odinga Oginga in Kenya.
In his book; Not Yet Uhuru, Jaramogi wrote: ‘‘In the cabinet, I was being excluded from decision making, and at one and the same time my membership of the cabinet was used to silence me and to hold the allegiance of my supporters, not only in Nyanza but throughout the country.’’
Other than the fact that President Kiir is avoiding to delegitimize his government by sacking Dr Machar and his SPLM-IO officials, I think the President is keen to keep the opposition silent as he buys time for his next course of action.
President Kiir is aware that the day he decides to sack Dr Machar and allow him to appear in his kangaroo court, conflict will flare up across the country. Finally, he is also aware of the fact that the day he will sack the incumbent First Vice-President, the R-ARCSS will be declared dead, the same way the head of government delegation Gen Kuol Manyang Kuol declared the Tumaini Peace Initiative dead 31 July 31, 2025.
The writer, Dak Buoth Riek Gaak, is lawyer, criminologist, and former delegate to the High-Level Mediation for South Sudan, alias Tumaini Peace Initiative, where he represented the South Sudan People’s Movement (eligodakb@yahoo.com)
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj.