Military fronts in North and West Kordofan witnessed rapid developments on Thursday after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), in coordination with joint forces, announced that they had regained control of a number of villages and strategic military positions.
The developments have raised pressing questions over the nature of the latest advances: are they limited tactical operations, or do they signal the beginning of a broader battlefield decline for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the Kordofan areas bordering Darfur?
Against this backdrop, retired military officer and military analyst Lieutenant Colonel Al-Tayyib Malkabi, speaking to Radio Tamazuj, offered a comprehensive assessment of the latest developments. He cautioned against viewing military movements in isolation and stressed the need to link battlefield geography with broader strategic planning.
“Sodari”: The pivotal obstacle and gateway towards Darfur
Malkabi said assessing military control requires an understanding of the relationship between the geography of the area and three key factors: control of territory, the opening of supply lines, and the degradation of an opponent’s combat capabilities.
In this context, he highlighted the area of Sodari, describing it as a “pivotal node” in the current theatre of operations.
Opening the route to Darfur: Malkabi said Sodari represents a key position from which forces can gain direct access to areas bordering Darfur, a move the SAF has identified as an interim strategic objective.
On the question of strategic capability, Malkabi said holding Sodari after capturing it would constitute a real test of the Sudanese army’s ability to move from a phase of defence and area-clearing operations to one focused on permanently holding and securing territory.
Operational integration: How are the current battles being conducted?
Addressing whether the latest advances resulted from an internal collapse within RSF ranks or from a deliberate military plan, Malkabi said the army had adopted an integrated, coordinated operations strategy centered on enhanced intelligence-gathering and the collection and verification of field information concerning the opponent’s movements and positions.
He said this had been followed by aerial preparation and the use of drones to conduct pre-emptive strikes and extensive reconnaissance operations aimed at restricting the opposing side’s movements and limiting its ability to manoeuvre.
Ground forces then advanced to seize designated villages and military positions after the defending forces had been weakened, he said.
At the same time, Malkabi pointed to another possibility: that the RSF may have opted to redeploy and withdraw towards areas it considers more strategically important in order to avoid exhausting its forces in less significant positions.
Route 40 and the disruption of a vital supply artery
The announced capture of more than 11 villages and military positions represents a development of significant strategic importance, particularly with regard to Route 40, which Malkabi described as a critical supply artery for the movement of fuel, ammunition and military reinforcements.
He said the latest movements had placed pressure on logistical capabilities, arguing that control of the corridor represented a direct blow to the RSF’s logistical capacity and could affect its ability to sustain combat operations across Kordofan and Darfur.
A protracted war and the test of endurance
With the conflict entering a prolonged phase and the warring parties continuing to engage in sustained fighting, Malkabi said both sides were facing a new reality that required serious consideration of their ability to sustain operations over the long term.
He said this included the capacity to manage military resources effectively and maintain territorial control without suffering excessive attrition.
The return of civilian life: The real measure of control
Malkabi concluded that military success should not be measured solely by battlefield gains or the expulsion of opposing forces. In his assessment, genuine control requires three successive stages.
The first is the offensive phase and the physical seizure of territory. The second is the ability to repel counterattacks and hold the captured ground. The third, which he described as the decisive measure, is the restoration of security and the return of normal civilian life.
Malkabi warned against falling into a cycle of military reversals and “hit-and-run” fighting of the kind seen in areas such as Bara, which he said had undermined civilians’ confidence in the presence of forces there.
Unless areas described as having been “liberated” reach the third stage, with residents able to return and settle safely, he argued, they will remain open theatres of conflict subject to repeated shifts in control.
Conclusion
The latest military movements in North and West Kordofan place the conflict at a potentially significant juncture. While the army is seeking to consolidate its supply routes and open a path towards Darfur, attention is now focused on the ability of the opposing sides to consolidate or maintain territorial control.
For civilians, the central concern remains whether these military developments will ultimately translate into lasting stability and an end to displacement and the hardships caused by the war.
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