Global commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026, driven by a surge in energy and fertilizer costs as conflict in the Middle East disrupts supply, the World Bank said on Tuesday, warning of higher inflation and slower growth.
Energy prices are expected to jump 24% this year to their highest since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The price shock is likely to weigh on job creation and development, the report said.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — which carries about 35% of global seaborne crude — have triggered what the bank described as the largest oil supply shock on record, cutting global supply by about 10 million barrels per day.
Brent crude prices were more than 50% higher in mid-April than at the start of the year and are forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, assuming disruptions ease from May and shipping gradually normalises by late 2026.
“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, citing rising energy and food costs and higher inflation that could push up interest rates and debt burdens.
Fertilizer prices are projected to rise 31% in 2026, led by a 60% increase in urea, reducing affordability and threatening crop yields. Up to 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity this year if the conflict persists, the World Food Programme said.
Prices for base metals such as aluminium, copper and tin are also expected to hit record highs, while precious metals are forecast to rise 42% on strong safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Rising commodity prices are expected to push inflation in developing economies to an average of 5.1% in 2026, up from 4.7% last year and about one percentage point higher than pre-war forecasts. Growth in those economies is now seen at 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage point from January estimates.
Countries directly affected by conflict will be hardest hit, while 70% of commodity importers and more than 60% of exporters could see weaker growth than previously projected.
An escalation in hostilities or prolonged supply disruptions could push Brent prices as high as $115 a barrel this year, the bank said, potentially lifting inflation in developing economies to 5.8%, a level exceeded only in 2022 over the past decade.
“The succession of shocks over the decade has sharply reduced the fiscal space available,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, urging governments to target support to vulnerable households rather than adopt broad subsidies.
The report also found that oil price volatility during periods of heightened geopolitical risk is roughly double that seen in calmer times, with supply shocks spilling over into gas and fertilizer markets and amplifying inflationary pressures.
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