In the ongoing SPLM Party primary elections in South Sudan, the Southern part of Unity State will be without Panyijiar County. This means Southern Unity is going to be a minority compared to northern Unity in terms of numbers. This factual concern should worry the Southern Unity SPLM candidates.
At this point in time, I doubt if there will be a SPLM Party candidate from Southern Unity State who will set foot in Panyijiar to campaign, for obvious reasons that the region is not SPLM-controlled territory. Panyijiar County, which is the largest county in Unity State, is an opposition stronghold that operates on opposition politics for the good and betterment of South Sudan.
Moreover, there is an adage which says “once bitten, twice shy.” The majority in Leer County are putting on SPLM caps rotationally for strategic security purposes. In other words, the residents in Leer County are donning the SPLM caps during the daytime mainly for their protection and safety.
At night and in the heart, the Leer County residents are believed and perceived to be die-hard opposition supporters more than the Panyijiar group. Leer County’s rotational politics is purposeful and judicious. You will remember the Amnesty International report entitled “Leer and Mayendit: anything that was breathing was killed.” If I were a bona fide SPLM Party member, I would encourage the party leadership to offer apologies to the aggrieved members ahead of time to regain and recapture their loyalties.
When D-Day approaches, Leer County will experience huge voter apathy if the sham SPLM election proceeds as planned. By definition, voter apathy means a lack of interest in an election, marred by low turnout or failure to vote.
Over the years, Leer County, formerly the headquarters of Southern Unity, has had residents who are politically sensitive due to their proximity to the well-versed individuals who have mastered the arts of political maneuvering.
This further begs the question: If the SPLM election was a genuine one, do you think Leer County would fail to produce a candidate for unity state governorship? In 2010, Leer County produced two candidates, namely Madam Angelina Teny and James Kuong Ninrew.
If I may reiterate, there will be unprecedented voter apathy in Leer County, and there will be no votes in Panyijiar County. Moreover, the residents of Mayendit and Koch counties, which are an appendage of these disgruntled counties of Panyijiar and Leer, will still give the forthcoming SPLM election a wide berth.
This means, therefore, without Leer and Panyijiar votes at their disposal, the Mayendit and Koch votes combined will be a drop in the ocean. In a nutshell, these are exactly what Southern Unity SPLM candidates need to know at this point in time.
Alternatively, the Southern Unity SPLM candidates should consider negotiating for a merger with their fellow SPLM candidates from Northern Unity before it is too late. They ought to arrive at this decision after doing a SWOT analysis.
I have said time and again that Southern Unity is a political desert. The three Southern Unity SPLM candidates decided to contest for the Unity State governorship on wishful thinking.
They decided to run for Unity State governorship on sympathy votes. They thought that they would win the Unity State governorship, perhaps because they thought it was time for the governorship to come to the Southern Unity side. However, they need to know that power is not given, but it is taken. Unfortunately, the Southern Unity SPLM candidates do not have the numbers to take gubernatorial power from the Northern Unity side.
In view of the foregoing, the few voters from Koch and Mayendit combined cannot make Gideon Gatpan Thoar, Dr. James Nhial Ruach Chinien and Gordon Lam beat the Northern Unity SPLM candidates, namely Gen. James Pui Yak, Gen. Riek Bim and Gen. Michael Chiangjeak Geay.
The Taban Deng Gai factor
Among the six SPLM candidates for unity state governorship, four candidates are from the former vice president Gen. Taban Deng’s camp. The fact that Taban endorsed four candidates shows a lack of a winning strategy.
In the wake of his endorsement of four SPLM candidates, I asked a question: if Gen. Taban Deng could not secure the appointment of his personal aide, Gabriel Gatkuoth Tekjiek, as SPOC vice president as per the latter’s nomination by the Southern Unity Parliamentary Caucus, how will he manage to secure the election of one of his four SPLM candidates for Unity State governorship?
On a lighter note, the incumbent EALA MP, Gideon Gatpan, being one of Taban’s political trainees, could have more advantage than Gen. Cheangjeak and Gen. Bim in Taban’s home turf of Guit County. But this advantage can only happen if Gen. Pui Yak from Guit County was not in the race.
If by any chance Pui was absent from this race, then Gideon could earn more sympathy votes in Guit County. The Guit County voters might think that Gideon will have a soft spot for them in his future leadership. However, the entry of Gen. Pui has denied him votes from the northern unity block.
Unity State needs a dirty person.
In the case of Unity State, a dirty person is one who combines both a principled and flexible stance on prevailing issues. The Unity State requires a dirty person to handle the political dirt in Unity State’s bad politics. Politically, this person can go head-to-head with the incumbent if need be.
Lately, I have been thinking that Pui is too good to be a Unity State governor for now. I am of the opinion that Pui is more of a philosopher than a politician. Despite Pui’s extensive academic and security background, he appears more as a diplomat who will hardly confront head-on those who are perpetuating division and a culture of impunity in the Unity State.
In 2023, when I was a Unity State community leader, I learned that Pui does not admire the politics of conspiracy and clannism, which were deeply planted in the hearts and minds of our people in Unity State.
In fact, if South Sudan’s national leadership were in a position to identify the capabilities of its senior professionals, Pui would be suitable to represent South Sudan at the United Nations or at the national or regional levels.
More importantly, one of the unwritten political rules is that Politics is local. Therefore, I would say Gideon is good, but I don’t think he is ripe to be the Unity State governor due to the reasons expressed therein.
In recent years, Unity State has witnessed and experienced numerous impunity and injustices which need to be handled not by a good and calm person, but by an outspoken and courageous person who will call a spade a spade.
However, among the SPLM candidates, I don’t see anyone with the necessary attributes and leadership qualities to restore our people’s unity based on their historical commonalities. The leadership of the current governor, Dr. Joseph Monytuil, has torn our social bonds. I am sure that the day he decides to go, he will leave the Unity State no better than he found it.
In Unity State, people look at themselves with fear and suspicion. At times, some people are viewed as obstacles, while other people are considered domineering or both.
Interestingly, most independent and free-thinking voters from Mayom County can vote for any candidates from Southern Unity because they themselves are tired of an empty and unproductive politics of exclusion against other counties.
In spite of the fact that Greater Mayom has held and occupied the governor position for about a decade and a half, Mayom County, where Governor Monytuil hails from, is not better off than the other six counties in terms of development. At times, funds and goodies meant for development are siphoned by political elites and their surrogates.
Surprisingly, the first Mayom County road was constructed to connect Mayom and Warrap State. The question is: if the incumbent governor, Dr. Monytuil, was pro Mayom County and Unity State, he could have first built a modern road that connects Mayom and Rubkona and, by extension, Unity State. Technically, I think Mayom County was annexed without our consent. And this unpopular decision will require a constitutional struggle in the future.
A few days ago, I opined an argument suggesting that the SPLM candidate from Mayom County cannot win unity state governorship in a free and fair primary or secondary elections. The reasons are that the bad politics of our incumbent governor and his predecessor have angered so many people in Unity State, and the people of Mayom County are no exception.
Nonetheless, the two northern Unity candidates from Mayom, namely Gen. Cheangjeak and Gen. Riek Bim, have only one advantage of incumbency. Ideologically, the SPLM party is not prepared to move power away from Greater Mayom since President Kiir is still President. The latter is using the Unity State governorship position not as a tool for development but as a shield for communal and personal protection.
Who is the favorite?
If the Unity State governorship must remain in the hands of greater Mayom County by hook or crook, then the rest of Unity State voters must do the math. In my view, Gen. Michael Chiangjeak is the favorite candidate who will thrash Gen. Justice Riek Bim in Mayom, let alone in Unity State. He will get the political support from his former SPLM-IO members who recently joined the SPLM Party because he was their former field commander who rebelled alongside Taban Deng and Dr Riek Machar in 2013.
However, the former SPLM-IO members, who had managed to read Dr. Peter Adwok Nyaba’s book entitled South Sudan: elites, ethnicity, endless war and stunted state, regarding Chiangjeak’s role when Dr. Riek Machar was being chased to the Democratic Republic of the Congo forest, will have a reason to fear and reject him in the ballot.
Further, if the gubernatorial race were left to Chiangjeak and Riek Bim, most voters from Southern Unity, particularly from Panyijiar County will vote for Riek Bim. The decision by Panyijiar voters to elect Cheangjeak and Riek Bim shall be informed and influenced by two historical events.
In January 2001, it was alleged that Cheangjeak was the operation commander who was commanding the then SPLM-allied rebel forces that caused the devastating fall of Nyal, Panyijiar County.
In August 2024, Justice Riek Bim became the first Unity State governor to visit Panyijiar County for the first time since South Sudan gained its independence from Sudan. His historical visit was viewed positively as recognition of their mother county in Unity State and South Sudan as a whole.
Those of us who have perused the international law literature will better understand what recognition means to the region and state. Historically, our first two Unity State governors, namely Gen. Taban and Dr. Monytuil, became unpopular in Panyijiar County by design or by default.
When the duo was in power, they were suspected of having orchestrated a political plot against the people of Panyijiar by shutting down the Ganyliel Community Health Training Institute, commonly known as CHW.
In 2010, when Gen. Taban and Dr. Monytuil were governor and national minister of health, respectively, the Ganyliel Community Health Institute was brought down immediately. It was because of these and other emotive issues of underrepresentation that Panyijiar residents are agitating for an independent administrative area similar to the Pibor and Abyei administrative areas.
The political Jesus
Finally, the best political strategy to garner the unity state governorship is one of two. First, the clever SPLM Candidate will pretend to be fighting Caretaker Governor Dr. Joseph Nguen Monytuil, whom the majority are opposed to. By using this deceptive tactic to confront Monytuil by discussing the critical issues affecting the state, that candidate will earn public support because the oppressed and marginalized Unity State populace will think he is a brave person who can fight injustices and insecurity alike.
In one of the above paragraphs, I said Unity State residents require someone of Moulana Kalisto type, who is just considered courageous and outspoken but who is also ready to face imprisonment on behalf of the people.
Perhaps this was what General Michael Chiangjeak Geay tried to do on his arrival in Bentiu a few days ago.
I believe the skirmishes that happened at Rubkona airstrip were part and parcel of this deceptive strategy. Perhaps General Michael knew this was the only way to maintain unity state governorship in Greater Mayom.
However, as I stated earlier, this strategy does not apply to all SPLM candidates; otherwise, someone will end up committing political suicide. For example, a candidate from Southern Unity cannot fake fighting Dr. Mayom in Bentiu unless with his expressed permission.
The failure to seek his prior permission can cause someone to be treated like the self-proclaimed Ngundeng prophet Taban Kuol, who was arrested and detained incommunicado.
The second strategy is to mobilize funds to feed hungry majority voters ahead of the SPLM election. At this trying moment of famine, Unity State residents needed a rare SPLM candidate who could act and perform miracles like Jesus Christ.
In the bible, John 6:1-14, Jesus fed about five thousand people in Galilee. If there is a SPLM candidate who is ready to invest his money by feeding our hungry people ahead of the controversial SPLM election, he will stand a chance to win the Unity State gubernatorial race. By doing this, the candidate will be a political Jesus of our time.
In conclusion, any attempt to provide food to our people at this point in time, when UN agencies such as the World Food Programme (WFP) have left, should not be treated as voter bribery, but rather as a positive move to meet people’s basic needs in compliance with basic human rights. I think the trio, namely Chiangjiek, Riek Bim and Gideon, can grab the opportunity because they both held lucrative government positions for almost a decade. The time is ripe for serious and hardcore politicians to spend their money in order to woo voters.
The writer is a lawyer and criminologist by profession. He is a former delegate to the High-Level Mediation for South Sudan, commonly known as the Tumaini Peace Initiative, representing the South Sudan People’s Movement. He can be reached for comments via eligodakb@yahoo.com.
The views expressed in ‘opinion’ articles published by Radio Tamazuj are solely those of the writer. The veracity of any claims made is the responsibility of the author, not Radio Tamazuj.
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