Macroeconomic instability, conflict, and flooding are expected to worsen food insecurity in South Sudan, already at catastrophic levels for parts of the population, during the outlook period, according to a new report titled ‘Hunger Hotspots: FAO–WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to October 2025 outlook.
For the outlook period from June to October 2025, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warn that acute food insecurity is likely to worsen across 13 countries and territories identified as hotspots and are issuing an early warning for urgent humanitarian action in these hotspots.
According to the report, South Sudan will continue to face serious economic challenges due to the residual impacts of the prolonged disruption of oil revenues in 2024. Despite some signs of currency stabilization, inflationary pressures persist amid the slow recovery of oil exports. The sharp depreciation of the South Sudanese pound in 2024 continues to drive inflation in staple food prices, with prices in March 2025 nearly five times higher than in the same month the previous year.
“The 2018 peace agreement that ended the civil war is increasingly fragile, with tensions escalating into violent clashes in several counties, particularly in Upper Nile and Jonglei states. Subnational violence – especially in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states – is likely to intensify, driving further displacement and disrupting agricultural production,” the report forecast. “As of March 2025, more than 1.8 million remain internally displaced, compounded by over one million returnees, refugees, and asylum seekers fleeing conflict in the Sudan as of April 2025. These arrivals are expected to increase during the outlook period amid continued instability in the Sudan. South Sudan also faces extreme and worsening humanitarian access constraints.”
Forecasts for above-average rainfall between May and November 2025 could support improved crop yields in southern bimodal areas, where harvests are expected to begin in August, according to the report.
However, the risk of severe flooding remains high in flood-prone areas, particularly in the Sudd wetlands. Although floodwaters began to recede in April 2025, river levels remain elevated due to ongoing outflows from Lake Victoria,” the report warned. “Projections suggest that flooding could peak again between September and November 2025, potentially matching the scale of the 2024 floods that affected over one million people. These conditions are likely to further disrupt livelihoods and agricultural activities, particularly where planting has only recently resumed.”
Approximately 7.7 million people (57 percent of the population) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and July 2025, an increase of 665,000 people compared to the same period in 2024. This includes 2.5 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 63,000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), half of whom are returnees.
The nutrition situation is equally alarming. Over half the country reports a global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence exceeding 15 percent. By June 2025, approximately 2.1 million children and 1.1 million pregnant and breastfeeding women are expected to be acutely malnourished, representing a 26 percent year-on-year increase.189 Refugees from the Sudan and South Sudanese returnees also exhibit critically high malnutrition rates, with GAM prevalence ranging from 23 to 28 percent.
FAO and WFP recommend the dissemination of flood-risk and early-warning information to at-risk communities through radio and existing Disaster Risk Management committees in flood-prone areas, enabling populations to relocate and safeguard productive assets. It also suggested the provision of livestock vaccination and prophylactic treatments to prevent flood-related livestock diseases, particularly Anthrax, which poses risks to both animals and humans.
The report also urges the distribution of agricultural inputs – such as vegetable and crop kits – through direct distribution, voucher programmes, and seed fairs, to support local food production and improve dietary diversity, and provide nutritional vouchers, and vegetable and fishing kits, to enhance nutrition and food access.
“Support destocking and restocking of livestock to preserve productive assets and enhance food security. Deliver food assistance, unconditional cash transfers, life-saving nutrition support, and emergency livelihood interventions to vulnerable populations, including refugees, returnees (particularly those arriving from the Sudan), and IDPs in conflict-affected areas of Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states,” the report further recommended. “Strengthen local capacities in disaster risk reduction and the sustainable, climate-sensitive management of natural resources.”
The South Sudan 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) calls for USD 475 million for food security and livelihoods and USD 198 million for nutrition interventions. An additional USD 468 million is required for the refugee response, which includes dedicated food security and nutrition assistance for refugees seeking asylum in South Sudan.
“Currently, funding for food, emergency agriculture, and nutrition assistance falls critically short, and the outlook is increasingly constrained. These funding shortfalls, compounded by severe access constraints, risk drastically reducing the delivery of food and nutrition support in several hunger hotspots – potentially leaving millions without assistance and deepening the severity of acute food insecurity,” the report said. “Funding for humanitarian assistance must not be reduced. On the contrary, urgent support should be scaled up to boost emergency food production and improve food access across all hunger hotspots.”
“Without immediate humanitarian action and coordinated international efforts to address access constraints and advocate for conflict de-escalation, further starvation and loss of life are likely in the Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali,” the report added.
In Sudan, the report says the drivers that led to the famine confirmation in late 2024 – ongoing conflict, restricted humanitarian access, and increased displacement – are expected to worsen.
“The IPC Famine Review Committee confirmed Famine (IPC Phase 5) occurred between October and November 2024 in five areas – including Zamzam, Abu Shouk, and Al Salam camps in North Darfur, as well as parts of South and West Kordofan in the Western Nuba Mountains,” the report said. “It further projected that five additional areas in North Darfur would face Famine (IPC Phase 5) between December 2024 and May 2025, while 17 other areas across North and South Darfur and the Central Nuba Mountains would face a heightened risk of famine.”
According to the UN agencies, ongoing conflict is likely to persist in several parts of Sudan, and displacement is likely to increase further during the outlook period. As of April 2025, the Sudan hosted 10.5 million IDPs, including 8.1 million displaced since the outbreak of the current conflict. An additional 3.9 million people have fled to neighbouring countries.
The country’s economy is expected to remain in steep decline through 2025. Inflation remains extremely high, standing at 174 percent in March 2025.