A political analyst said President Salva Kiir’s insistence that South Sudan will hold elections in December 2026 despite unresolved political and security challenges reflects a calculated bid to preserve government legitimacy and maintain political control.
Abraham Kuol Nyuon, a political science professor at the University of Juba, said the move appeared aimed at avoiding further delays that could erode the government’s credibility or trigger renewed instability.
Speaking to Radio Tamazuj on Monday, Dr. Kuol said the government was seeking to project commitment to democratic processes and meet international expectations, potentially securing goodwill from donors and regional partners.
“By moving forward, the government may be trying to demonstrate commitment to democracy and meet international expectations,” Kuol said. “It also allows the government to control the electoral timetable and counter opposition claims that they are being blocked from participating.”
On Friday, Minister of Presidential Affairs Africano Mande Gedima said the presidency and senior leaders of parties signatory to the 2018 peace agreement had agreed that elections must be held by December 2026.
The meeting was attended by a faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), formed in April 2025 and led by Peacebuilding Minister Stephen Par Kuol.
However, the main SPLM-IO faction loyal to suspended First Vice President Riek Machar rejected the meeting’s outcome, saying it lacked inclusivity and that its resolutions were not binding.
Dr. Kuol said the government’s position projects an image of stability at a time when Kiir’s administration, in power since independence in 2011, faces growing pressure to show that the peace process remains on track.
“Proceeding with elections could help legitimise the current political order,” he said, adding that holding polls without resolving core issues could undermine the process.
Key risks include eroding public trust if elections are perceived as unfair, marginalising opposition groups excluded from decision-making, and weakening the peace deal if security and constitutional reforms remain unaddressed, Kuol said.
He added that while the Transitional Constitution could provide a legal basis for elections, their credibility would depend on how effectively the government addresses longstanding grievances.
The exclusion of Machar’s SPLM-IO faction from the recent consensus carries serious political implications, Kuol said, warning it could weaken the group’s domestic and international standing and embolden armed allies to reject the peace process or refuse to recognise election outcomes.
Kuol said Machar’s camp may now push for stronger guarantees, greater inclusion and political concessions to remain relevant.
South Sudan’s transition under the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement has stalled, with key provisions unimplemented and relations between Kiir and Machar strained.
Outstanding tasks include unifying armed forces, drafting a permanent constitution, conducting a population census, returning refugees, implementing institutional reforms and preparing for elections.
In September 2024, the parties agreed to delay elections from December 2024 to December 2026, extending the transitional period once again.