South Sudan’s fragile peace agreement is at a “critical crossroads”, with escalating ceasefire violations raising fears of a return to full-scale conflict and threatening preparations for elections planned for late 2026, a monitoring body said in a new report rleeased today.
The quarterly report by the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), covering the period from October 1 to December 31, 2025, warns of a deteriorating security environment, mounting humanitarian needs and deepening political tensions that risk derailing the 2018 peace deal.
“Ongoing armed confrontations have heightened fears of total collapse of the permanent ceasefire and a relapse into full-scale conflict,” the report said, adding that the violence is eroding trust among the parties and undermining confidence in the peace process.
Escalating violence
According to the report, fighting continued between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir’s South Sudan People’s Defence Force (SSPDF) and opposition groups, including the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) and the National Salvation Front (NAS), across six states.
The RJMEC said the Revitalised Transitional Government of National Unity had made “no noticeable efforts” to halt the clashes, describing the violence as a “serious violation” of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, signed in 2018.
On the political front, the report noted the continued trial of First Vice President Riek Machar and other senior SPLM/A-IO figures, alongside government proposals to amend the peace agreement to “de-link” the December 2026 elections from the completion of a permanent constitution and a national population census.
The monitoring body voiced concern over what it described as “unilateral decisions” by the government, including the removal of opposition-nominated officials from public office without consensus among the peace partners.
It urged all parties to “cease hostilities immediately” and recommit to inclusive dialogue to resolve outstanding disputes.
Humanitarian situation
The report said the country’s humanitarian situation “deteriorated sharply” during the reporting period, driven by conflict, widespread flooding, food insecurity and disease outbreaks.
By the end of 2025, an estimated 10 million people — around two-thirds of South Sudan’s population — required humanitarian assistance, it said.
Aid efforts were severely constrained by funding gaps, with only 42 percent of the $1.7 billion needed for the 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan secured. Humanitarian access was also described as “severely constrained” by insecurity, flooding and bureaucratic impediments.
A cholera outbreak that began in late 2024 had killed nearly 1,600 people by December 2025, the report said, noting that around half of the deaths occurred outside health facilities.
Elections at risk
With less than a year remaining before the scheduled polls, the RJMEC warned that key preconditions for credible elections remain unmet, including the unification of forces, judicial reforms and the creation of a conducive political and security environment.
The National Elections Commission has announced it will rely on constituency boundaries established in 2010 for the vote, a move that has drawn criticism from opposition groups and civil society actors.
To avert further deterioration, the commission issued a series of recommendations, calling on the transitional government to reinstate dismissed opposition officials, guarantee political and civic space, and provide adequate funding to electoral and constitution-making institutions.
It also urged the regional bloc IGAD and the African Union to help break the political deadlock and press for the release of political detainees.
The United Nations and international partners were encouraged to support inclusive dialogue and step up coordinated humanitarian assistance.
“The South Sudan peace process stands at a critical crossroads, demanding urgent and coordinated action,” the report said, warning that without decisive intervention the country risks “sliding back into instability and jeopardising the hard-won gains of the peace process”.
The Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission is an independent body established under the 2018 peace agreement to oversee and report on its implementation.